THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE WAR?
27 January 2025
It has been several weeks since my last update, but it is not for the want of trying. As fast as I write, events overtake me. Facts on the ground are changing by the minute, as you will see if you read my earlier entries below.
By now, the deal with Hamas has been agreed upon and its implementation begun. To date, 7 female hostages have been returned alive to Israel, hundreds of Palestinian terrorists, some with Israeli blood on their hands, have been released from Israeli prisons, and today, the Netzarim corridor has been opened to allow evacuated Gazans to return to the northern part of the Strip. This is just the beginning of the first phase of the deal. Already Hamas is pushing the boundaries and there is no surety the agreement will stand long enough for all the hostages to be returned to Israel. We are holding our collective breath.
Is the deal a good thing? No, I believe it is a terrible deal, giving Hamas at least the illusion of victory, but it was necessary at this point. Israel as a state has a strong moral imperative to rescue every last Israeli citizen if at all possible. No one is expendable. There is an extremely strong sense that we are all family, and you never abandon family.
Is the war with Hamas over? No, they live to fight another day. Already Hamas is celebrating 'victory', regrouping, recruiting and replacing their lost arms. They are promising more 'October 7's and we believe them. I do hope however, that we will be ready next time and will not ever again be caught off-guard.
Did Hamas win? In a sense perhaps they did. Their plan to take hostages and hold them to ransom has worked, and as a result they are receiving thousands of their people back to fight another day. Hamas as an organization and fighting force is still here, and has the support of many, if not the majority of Gazans. Their ideology lives on and their aspiration to destroy the Jewish State, from the River to the Sea, has perhaps even strengthened. On the other hand, if you see the images of the destruction in Gaza, large swathes of which have been literally flattened, and count the cost to the people of Gaza, it is hard to see it as victory. Nevertheless for Hamas that doesn't matter. They care nothing for the people they rule over.
What will happen in Gaza now? That is the million (or billions!) dollar question. Hamas still is in control it seems. The international community may have other plans for Gaza but for now it is Hamas out on the streets with the guns.
Many here hoped that US President Donald Trump, now having been sworn in, would endorse an allied attack on Iran's nuclear sites, and bring down the ayatollah regime thus slaying the 'head of the octopus'. It seems however that he prefers the diplomatic course, negotiations and sanctions. I am not sure we have time for that. I don't think we should negotiate with pure evil. It hasn't worked in the past and it won't work now.
Trump yesterday released the shipment to Israel of the bunker busting bombs needed for an attack on Iran. This shipment was blocked for many months by the Biden administration. Is this move by Trump merely a completion of a business deal (Israel had already paid for these armaments), or is it a 'green light' for Israel to attack the nuclear sites in Iran. Perhaps it is just a message to Iran and its proxies?
In the north, the ceasefire is holding in the sense that there has been no rocket fire into Israel since the ceasefire began. Skirmishes however continue between IDF forces and Hezbollah operatives who are infiltrating into the 'forbidden zone' south of the Litani River attempting to repossess arms caches and re-establish positions. The withdrawal of IDF forces from southern Lebanon was supposed to be completed by today (26 January), but it has been announced that the deadline will be pushed back to the 18th of February, because the Lebanese Army has not successfully enforced the pullback of the Hezbollah fighters nor taken control of most of the villages along the Israeli border as required by the agreement. It seems to me unlikely that the Lebanese army will be able to fulfil its obligations, since it is poorly equipped compared to Hezbollah, and in any case is partially made up of Hezbollah operatives.
Since the albeit shaky ceasefires have been initiated in Lebanon and Gaza, focus has to some degree shifted to Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), where the IDF and the Palestinian Authority are trying to stamp out the nests of Hamas, ISIS, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other terrorists. Will these operations be able to prevent these terrorists from carrying out more October 7 -type attacks on Israel as they plan?
As you can see, there are many questions. For now the rockets and missiles are not flying overhead and there is an uneasy calm, but the situation is tense and the skirmishes on the ground, in both Lebanon and Gaza could easily escalate once more.
We are all feeling weary of the war, violence and hatred, and I sense that the world as a whole has rather lost interest in the fate of Israel in this situation. If you belong to the LORD, please do not give up praying for Israel. It may seem very far away, but what happens here will affect the entire world, and you, and I, are here 'just for a time like this'. If we do not 'stand in the gap', who will?
It feels to us here in Israel that the entire world is rising up against this tiny land and the Jewish people as a whole. Today is International Holocaust Day, the commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz 80 years ago, and once again expressions of blatant antisemitism have become socially acceptable in many countries, and in the media. Will there be another Holocaust? Will you stand up against this tide of antisemitism or will you look the other way? We need to pray fervently and perhaps the LORD will relent. The prophet Amos said this,
I cried out, “Sovereign Lord, forgive! How can Jacob survive? He is so small!”
So the Lord relented.
“This will not happen,” the Lord said.
This is what the Sovereign Lord showed me: The Sovereign Lord was calling for judgment by fire; it dried up the great deep and devoured the land. Then I cried out, “Sovereign Lord, I beg you, stop! How can Jacob survive? He is so small!” So the Lord relented.
Amos 7: 2-6
So the Lord relented.
“This will not happen,” the Lord said.
This is what the Sovereign Lord showed me: The Sovereign Lord was calling for judgment by fire; it dried up the great deep and devoured the land. Then I cried out, “Sovereign Lord, I beg you, stop! How can Jacob survive? He is so small!” So the Lord relented.
Amos 7: 2-6
Is Micah's prophesy about to be fulfilled?
But now many nations
are gathered against you.
They say, “Let her be defiled,
let our eyes gloat over Zion!”
12 But they do not know
the thoughts of the Lord;
they do not understand his plan,
that he has gathered them like sheaves to the threshing floor.
13 “Rise and thresh, Daughter Zion,
for I will give you horns of iron;
I will give you hooves of bronze,
and you will break to pieces many nations.”
are gathered against you.
They say, “Let her be defiled,
let our eyes gloat over Zion!”
12 But they do not know
the thoughts of the Lord;
they do not understand his plan,
that he has gathered them like sheaves to the threshing floor.
13 “Rise and thresh, Daughter Zion,
for I will give you horns of iron;
I will give you hooves of bronze,
and you will break to pieces many nations.”
Micah 4: 11-13
15 Jan 2025 9PM Israel time
It has just been officially announced that Israel and Hamas have both agreed to 3-stage plan to bring about the end of the war, and the release of the remaining Israeli hostages. The deal is expected to be officially signed in the coming hours.
In the first stage, which will take six weeks to complete, 33 of the remaining 98 hostages will be returned to Israel. The process will begin this coming Sunday (the 19th), with the release of the first three hostages. The 33 hostages to be released include female civilians and soldiers, children, the elderly and the injured or ill. We do not yet know the identities of those to be released nor whether they are alive or deceased. I cannot imagine the agony the waiting families must be experiencing.
During this phase both sides will enter into a ceasefire, and Israel will start withdrawing towards the east, allowing Gazan civilians to return home and be rehabilitated in stages. Israel will also release thousands of Hamas terrorists from Israeli jails, some to Gaza, Judea and Samaria, and some to exile elsewhere.
The other 65 Israeli hostages will be released only in the second and third stages, the details of which are still to be ironed out by the parties involved.
Is this the beginning of the end of the war? Will both sides honor the agreements? Can it be ensured that Hamas will not regroup, rearm and again attack Israel? Who will govern Gaza?
There are still so many questions to be answered, but perhaps there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Only God knows.
As you can see, as fast as I write the situation changes. Read what I wrote yesterday:
14 Jan 2025 Missile attacks from the Houthis
It is Day 466 of the war in Israel, and this morning at around 3AM we were yet again woken up by the missile alert sirens. The ballistic missile was fired from Yemen by the Houthis, who claim to have hit the IDF Central Command in Tel Aviv. In reality the missile was shot down over Jerusalem and the shrapnel fell in the surrounding areas, one large fragment punching through the roof of a house in Mevo Beitar, which lies between Jerusalem and Beit Shemesh. No one was injured, except for around 11 people who sustained minor injuries while running for shelter, or who suffered anxiety attacks.
https://static-cdn.toi-media.com/www/uploads/2025/01/AFP__20250114__36TP4MN__v1__HighRes__IsraelYemenPalestinianConflict-1024x640.jpg
A rocket fragment embedded in roof of house in Mevo Beitar near Jerusalem, January 14, 2025
Earlier yesterday, another interception of a ballistic missile caused fragments to fall in the Afula - Beit Shean and Jordan Valley area.
Is a hostage deal imminent?
In spite of this latest missile attack this morning all the news is focusing on the hostage deal negotiations. The media is full of reports saying the 'deal is on' the 'deal is imminent', the 'deal is off' and so on. I cannot imagine what the families of the hostages are going through in this maelstrom of information, misinformation and speculations, not to mention purely fake news.
Israelis are divided about the wisdom of even a temporary ceasefire at this juncture, and the release of thousands of Palestinian terrorist prisoners from Israeli jails. Some see it as tantamount to conceding defeat and rewarding Hamas for its aggression. Some Palestinians are already celebrating Hamas' victory over Israel, and Hamas is boasting of its plans for future invasions such as that which they carried out on October 7,2023.
Other Israelis support the proposed deal in order to obtain the release of hostages 'at any price'. Although the exact terms of the deal have not been publicized, it seems that the first stage of the deal will secure the release of only 33 of the 98 hostages remaining in Gaza, and it is unclear how many of those 33 are still alive. It is also unclear when and if the other 65 hostage, dead and alive, will be released. The clock is ticking for the hostages, even for those who were young and healthy when captured, since they have been starved of food, light and fresh air, and kept in horrendous damp and unsanitary conditions far underground, and denied medical care. It is thought that around 50% have already died.
Personally my heart is torn. On one hand I want to see all the hostages rescued but I fear the consequences of agreeing to any deal which allows for the survival of Hamas and the release of terrorists, especially those with Israeli blood on their hands. Its a terrible choice.
I cannot imagine the pressure on our PM Netanyahu today. As someone put it 'he needs Solomonic wisdom' to know what to do. Its a lose-lose situation, and the 'Palestinians' are already celebrating their 'victory'. May the LORD give Netanyahu divine wisdom and guidance!
Ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip
After 15 months of continual fighting, the IDF is still encountering pockets of resistance, discovering weapons caches, rocket launching sites and tunnels even in areas once deemed 'clear'. It is testimony to the massive preparations Hamas had made before their attack on October 7. It is also testimony to the massive amount of money they spent on military installations and equipment, rather than using it to improve the lives of the Gazan population. Over 300 km of concrete-lined tunnels have been discovered in a network under the Strip, which measures just 41 kilometres (25 miles) long, and from 6 to 12 km (3.7 to 7.5 mi) wide. (Just imagine how many homes, schools, hospitals etc. could have been built with that concrete, and how many water desalination plants and electricity stations and infrastructure could have been built with that money.)
With the fighting ongoing, soldiers of the IDF are still being killed. Just yesterday 5 were killed, and 10 injured, in the northern Gaza Strip, among them the son (aged 20) of one of my colleagues at All Israel News. His funeral is to take place in about an hour from now (at 2PM on 14/01).
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has lost a total of 840 soldiers, including 55 in the current operation in the northern Strip which began in October 2024, according to the official figures of the IDF.
Although the military apparatus of Hamas has been largely destroyed, it still has many fighters and much equipment and has made no secret of the fact they want to carry out more kidnappings and attacks in Israel. Lately, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have even resumed firing rockets, on an almost daily basis, from Gaza into the southern communities of Israel, even as the traumatised people there are returning to try and rebuild their homes and lives.
It seems too that, against all the odds, Hamas is managing to rearm, and there are reports of large numbers of men being recruited into their fighting ranks. Some reports suggest that roughly the same number of new recruits have been added to their number as the number of Hamas operatives killed by the IDF.
Ceasefire in Lebanon
The ceasefire in Lebanon, which began on the 27 November, seems to be more or less holding. Apart from one anti-tank RPG there has been no cross-border rocket fire from Hezbollah. The IDF has however been continually acting against Hezbollah operatives entering the region south of the Litani River, which was forbidden by the ceasefire agreement. The IDF has discovered massive preparations in tunnels and 'civilian' houses for a planned attack on northern Israel in which some 5,300 Hezbollah operatives were to storm the border in 36 places and capture and take hostage the residents of a number of Israeli towns in the Galilee and Golan.
The big question is: Why didn't they do it? Had they carried out this plan simultaneously with the Hamas attack we would have been in big trouble. May God be praised!
The 60 day ceasefire ends on the 26th of January and by that time the IDF is supposed to have withdrawn all its troops from Lebanon, and the Lebanese government army (LAF) taken control in the region vacated, and all Hezbollah forces withdrawn north of the Litani River. Although the IDF has withdrawn from some towns and villages, there is doubt that the LAF will be able to take control and expel all the Hezbollah forces in that time frame. It may be that the IDF will have to extend the deadline. The IDF is still encountering Hezbollah operatives south of the Litani River, and uncovering Hezbollah weapons caches and military positions.
The Fall of the Assad Regime in Syria
Since the lightning fast fall of the Assad regime in Syria the situation remains extremely fluid. A de facto government has been established under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani), the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Al Sharaa is at pains to present himself and his organisation as being 'moderate' and as having no plans to threaten any other country.
Thankfully our leadership is suspicious of this claim and is watching very carefully. Once things have quietened down, and the spotlight is turned off, Al Sharaa will most likely revert to type and introduce strict Sharia Law, persecute minority groups, and threaten Israel. We have seen this pattern in several instances elsewhere in the Middle East when terror groups take control.
Israel has occupied the buffer zone between Syria and Israel, including the strategically important Syrian summit of Mt Hermon. The IAF has also been bombing and destroying Assad's heavy weapons, military equipment and arms caches so that these do not fall into the hands of HTS, ISIS or any other terror group. The IDF is also destroying routes by which weapons were shipped through Syria from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iraq
Iraq, seeing the writing on the wall, also announced soon after the fall of Assad that it would no longer fire missiles at Israel, and would not participate in the smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah.
Iran
The fall of Assad's regime came as a serious blow to Iran which had already more or less lost its two main proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. After Israel destroyed most of Iran's defense capability on the 26 October 2024, Iran has repeatedly threatened retaliation but, to date, nothing has eventuated.
It seems to me a shame that Israel and its allies, especially the US and the UK which already have forces in the region, have not taken the opportunity to destroy Iran's nuclear sites, once and for all. Why has this not happened? I suspect there are two main reasons: one, that the Biden administration has withheld from Israel the bunker busting bombs needed to do the job, and two, that Biden does not want it to happen on 'his watch'. He wants to go down in history as the President who made peace, not war, in the Middle East.
I fear the opportunity created by Israel's destruction of Iran's defensive systems may already have been partially lost by this delay in taking action. There are reports that since October, Iran has managed to restore at least some of its defense capability.
There is some expectation here that after Donald Trump is inaugurated as U.S. President on January 21st things will change. Although Trump has made it clear that he wants to deal with Iran through sanctions and diplomacy, with Iran only days or weeks away from producing a nuclear bomb, there is no time for those solutions. The question is, will Trump support and cooperate with Israel to destroy Iran's potential to build a nuclear arsenal?
Turkey
Turkey's dictatorial President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has made no secret of his desire to reestablish the Turkish Empire. Turkey backed, armed and financed the HTS, and is reportedly amassing its army along the Turkish-Syrian border. Here in Israel, we are watching developments very carefully.
Egypt
In 1979 Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty. The treaty stipulated very specifically what military resources Egypt was permitted to locate in the Sinai. These stipulations were relaxed in recent years to help Egypt counter the ISIS presence there. However more recently, Egypt has massively expanded and strengthened its military presence in the Sinai, far beyond what is permitted, and this with aid and arms provided by the USA. One must ask why?
