DAY 6 IRAN - ISRAEL WAR, DAY 621 GAZA WAR

“But you, Israel, my servant,

    Jacob, whom I have chosen,

    you descendants of Abraham my friend,

9 

I took you from the ends of the earth,

    from its farthest corners I called you.

I said, ‘You are my servant’;

    I have chosen you and have not rejected you.

10 

So do not fear, for I am with you;

    do not be dismayed, for I am your God.

I will strengthen you and help you;

    I will uphold you with my righteous right hand.

11 

“All who rage against you

    will surely be ashamed and disgraced;

those who oppose you

    will be as nothing and perish.

12 

Though you search for your enemies,

    you will not find them.

Those who wage war against you

    will be as nothing at all.

13 

For I am the Lord your God

    who takes hold of your right hand

and says to you, Do not fear;

    I will help you.

14 

Do not be afraid, you worm Jacob,

    little Israel, do not fear,

for I myself will help you,” declares the Lord,

    your Redeemer, the Holy One of Israel.

15 

“See, I will make you into a threshing sledge,

    new and sharp, with many teeth.

You will thresh the mountains and crush them,

    and reduce the hills to chaff.

16 

You will winnow them, the wind will pick them up,

    and a gale will blow them away.

But you will rejoice in the Lord

    and glory in the Holy One of Israel.

Isaiah 41:8-16

On Friday morning (13 June) we were awakened at 3AM by our Home Front alerts to discover that Israel's air force was attacking military targets in Iran. I admit I felt a frission of fear but my main reaction was one of relief. After more than 40 years of having the Iranian threat hanging over our heads, and suffering constant attacks from Iranian proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis etc), we were finally striking 'the head of the octopus'. 

The time was right. We really had no choice. For years the Ayatollah Regime in Iran has been open about its intention to destroy Israel completely, and on Friday they were on the cusp of producing several nuclear bombs to do just that. They also had already produced around 3,000 ballistic and cruise missiles with factories working overtime to bring that stockpile to at least 6,000. We also had the opportunity, after having destroyed most of Iran's air defense system back in October of last year. US President Donald Trump had done his best to convince the Iranian Regime to make a deal to dismantle or destroy their nuclear project and avoid war, but they were adamant they would never agree. On Thursday it was clear that the negotiations had failed.

Iran's reaction to Israel's pre-emptive attack was immediate. They fired around 100 ballistic missiles and many armed UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles or drones) at Israel that same morning. Thanks to our missile defense systems and the help of other nations, none of these reached Israel. 

Since that time the Israeli Air Force has continually bombarded Iranian nuclear installations, as well as hundreds of missile caches and launchers and other military targets. In the first few days, the IAF destroyed all the remaining Iranian air defense systems, opening the skies for unopposed aerial attacks. Israel has also assassinated the 20 top military leaders and 9 -10 of the most senior nuclear scientists of Iran. 

Since Friday Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and UAVs at Israel, targeting mainly the built up areas in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba and their surrounding towns. Israel tries to avoid civilian casualties by warning of attacks in advance and targeting only military installations and the homes and offices of the military leadership, but Iran on the contrary directly targets Israel's civilian population. 

Israel has been very careful to avoid civilian casualties because that is how we wage war. However we also have no quarrel with the Iranian people and we are hoping that they will rise up and get rid of the current regime, that most of them hate intensely.

Historically Iran (Persia) and Israel have had friendly relations since King Cyrus allowed the Jews to return to Jerusalem and rebuild the temple in 539 BCE and until the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

According to today's IDF statistics the Iranians have fired over 400 ballistic missiles, and 1000 armed drones at Israel since last Friday. Around 90% of the missiles fired at Israel by Iran have been intercepted or have not reached Israeli airspace. A few have slipped through and as of this time (18/06) some 24 Israeli civilians have been killed and 500-800 (depending who you include) people injured.  18,766 damage claims have been lodged for destroyed or damaged buildings and vehicles. 3,800 people have been evacuated from damaged buildings.  No Israeli military personnel have been killed or injured in the Iranian arena. Only one Israeli aircraft, an unmanned drone, has been brought down in the hundreds or thousands of sorties the IAF has flown. The IDF is saying that "Operation Rising Lion" (see Numbers 23:24) is ahead of schedule and having greater success than expected. We have also to date suffered fewer casualties than expected. 

In the last day or so we have seen fewer and fewer incoming missiles from Iran, indicating that they may have lost a significant portion of their fire power and  under stress, or perhaps are saving them for something big. A few hours ago, Iran fired, for the first time, three of its Sejjil missiles at Israel. These missiles  travel at 12-14 times the speed of sound and carry a very large explosive warhead weighing around 700kg. Fortunately these missile were successfully intercepted and caused no damage or casualties. 

Since the beginning of Operation Rising Lion Israel has been largely shut down. All schools have been closed and only essential businesses (supermarkets, pharmacies etc) allowed to operate. Gatherings have been forbidden. Public transport has been stopped, except for some routes to hospitals and other essential places. The airport was closed down on Friday, all passengers and personnel were evacuated and all the planes flown to another country. 

Around 100,000 Israelis are trapped abroad since the airport was shut down. Today however the Ministry of Transport and the Israel Aviation Authority have begun to repatriate, on special rescue flights, Israeli citizens who want to return home, but it will take a long time clear this vast number of stranded people. Many tourists and visitors are also stuck here in Israel but soon they will be able to board outgoing flights as part of this operation. 

Life for the civilian population of Israel has been largely circumscribed by these events. With workplaces, schools and shops closed and Home Front instructions to stay close to shelters, the streets were more or less empty the first few days. As time has gone on more and more people have been venturing out to restock supplies, walk the dog, take exercise or just 'get out of the house'. Unnecessary movement in the open is however discouraged since being distant from a shelter is risky as at any moment the 'incoming missile' alerts can sound. 

I have been very impressed by the courage, restraint and resilience of the Israeli population. I have seen no panic or overt expressions of fear. Everyone seems calm, determined and positive. I am constantly amazed by the willingness of so many to sacrifice so much, putting their own lives on the line again and again, in order to protect our nation. 

Of course we are tired of war. It is now 621 days since Hamas invaded Israel and massacred 1200 Israeli men women and children, including foreign nationals, and took 251 captive into the horror tunnels of Gaza, sparking the war against Hamas. This is still ongoing, and just this week alone 4 Israeli soldiers were killed there. 

I appreciate that our suffering is perhaps not as great as that of the people of Gaza, but whereas the media is much concerned for the Gazans, the suffering of Israelis is overlooked. We have lost around 800 soldiers since the war began on October 8, and 53 of the hostages still remain in the hands of Hamas, though of those only around 20 are believed to be still alive. 

Israel is a small country with a very strong national identity and sense of community. Its really just one big family. When one soldier is killed or one hostage is confirmed dead we all mourn. When one hostage is released we all celebrate. Everyone knows someone who has died or suffered life-changing injuries. We are a nation in mourning but also standing strongly together, in spite of sometimes vitriolic political differences. Deep down all Israelis, even the most secular, have a strong hope and faith that we will survive and flourish. This gives us tremendous strength as a nation.

Since Friday the synagogues and churches have been closed because of the ban on gatherings. Our congregation held its 'meeting' on Shabbat via Zoom. 

About half of our congregation have been camping out at our congregational premises since many do not have adequate mamads (specially reinforced shelters) at home. Municipalities have opened public shelters and in Jerusalem the underground train station has also been opened for those who have no protected space at home. 

A few minutes ago our Home Front Command began to ease the regulations in most areas of the country, not because the danger is significantly less, but because we cannot indefinitely shut down the economy and our lives. 

Tonight we are all holding our collective breath waiting to see if and when the U.S., and perhaps other allied nations, will join us in eliminating Iran's nuclear and missile threat. Only the US has the large bunker-busting bombs that can penetrate the depths of the massive underground nuclear facility at Fordow in Iran.  

There is much more I could say about the situation but I recommend you read reliable news outlet sources online for more information. I recommend All Israel News for factual and honest reporting without commentary. Here is the link:   https://allisraelnews.com/. I also recommend you avoid the mainline news outlets, especially the BBC and CNN because of their anti-Israel bias. For an accurate and up-to-the-minute update I recommend IsraelRealtime. You can join for free using one of the links below:

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UPDATE: 19 JUNE 2025

This morning Iran crossed a red line. A volley of around 25-30 missiles was fired at Israel about 07:30 and one of them struck the Soroka Hospital in Beer Sheva (Beersheba), causing much damage one of the buildings.  No one was killed but there were some minor injuries. It could have been much, much worse were it not that the top floor of the building had been evacuated just the day before at the instruction of the Ministry of Health, reportedly because of damage sustained in earlier attacks. According to All Israel News, "MDA Director General Eli Bin called it “a great miracle,” stating that the Ministry of Health had ordered the evacuation of the damaged floor just last night. “Many lives were saved,” he continued. 

In the same barrage several other missiles struck apartment buildings and a school in central Israel. Thankfully schools are still closed. There were no fatalities but dozens suffered injuries, some serious. Many more have lost their homes. 

An earlier volley at about 1 AM, consisted of only 5 missiles and all were intercepted, and there were no damage or injuries.

THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE WAR?

27 January 2025

It has been several weeks since my last update, but it is not for the want of trying. As fast as I write, events overtake me. Facts on the ground are changing by the minute, as you will see if you read my earlier entries below. 

By now, the deal with Hamas has been agreed upon and its implementation begun. To date, 7 female hostages have been returned alive to Israel, hundreds of Palestinian terrorists, some with Israeli blood on their hands, have been released from Israeli prisons, and today, the Netzarim corridor has been opened to allow evacuated Gazans to return to the northern part of the Strip. This is just the beginning of the first phase of the deal. Already Hamas is pushing the boundaries and there is no surety the agreement will stand long enough for all the hostages to be returned to Israel. We are holding our collective breath. 

Is the deal a good thing? No, I believe it is a terrible deal, giving Hamas at least the illusion of victory, but it was necessary at this point. Israel as a state has a strong moral imperative to rescue every last Israeli citizen if at all possible. No one is expendable. There is an extremely strong sense that we are all family, and you never abandon family. 

Is the war with Hamas over? No, they live to fight another day. Already Hamas is celebrating 'victory', regrouping, recruiting and replacing their lost arms. They are promising more 'October 7's and we believe them. I do hope however, that we will be ready next time and will not ever again be caught off-guard. 

Did Hamas win? In a sense perhaps they did. Their plan to take hostages and hold them to ransom has worked, and as a result they are receiving thousands of their people back to fight another day. Hamas as an organization and fighting force is still here, and has the support of many, if not the majority of Gazans.  Their ideology lives on and their aspiration to destroy the Jewish State, from the River to the Sea, has perhaps even strengthened.  On the other hand, if you see the images of the destruction in Gaza, large swathes of which have been literally flattened, and count the cost to the people of Gaza, it is hard to see it as victory. Nevertheless for Hamas that doesn't matter. They care nothing for the people they rule over. 

What will happen in Gaza now? That is the million (or billions!) dollar question. Hamas still is in control it seems. The international community may have other plans for Gaza but for now it is Hamas out on the streets with the guns. 

Many here hoped that US President Donald Trump, now having been sworn in, would endorse an allied attack on Iran's nuclear sites, and bring down the ayatollah regime thus slaying the 'head of the octopus'. It seems however that he prefers the diplomatic course, negotiations and sanctions. I am not sure we have time for that. I don't think we should negotiate with pure evil. It hasn't worked in the past and it won't work now. 

Trump yesterday released the shipment to Israel of the bunker busting bombs needed for an attack on Iran. This shipment was blocked for many months by the Biden administration. Is this move by Trump merely a completion of a business deal (Israel had already paid for these armaments), or is it a 'green light' for Israel to attack the nuclear sites in Iran. Perhaps it is just a message to Iran and its proxies? 

In the north, the ceasefire is holding in the sense that there has been no rocket fire into Israel since the ceasefire began. Skirmishes however continue between IDF forces and Hezbollah operatives who are infiltrating into the 'forbidden zone' south of the Litani River attempting to repossess arms caches and re-establish positions. The withdrawal of IDF forces from southern Lebanon was supposed to be completed by today (26 January), but it has been announced that the deadline will be pushed back to the 18th of February, because the Lebanese Army has not successfully enforced the pullback of the Hezbollah fighters nor taken control of most of the villages along the Israeli border as required by the agreement. It seems to me unlikely that the Lebanese army will be able to fulfil its obligations, since it is poorly equipped compared to Hezbollah, and in any case is partially made up of Hezbollah operatives. 

Since the albeit shaky ceasefires have been initiated in Lebanon and Gaza, focus has to some degree shifted to Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), where the IDF and the Palestinian Authority are trying to stamp out the nests of Hamas, ISIS, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other terrorists. Will these operations be able to prevent these terrorists from carrying out more October 7 -type attacks on Israel as they plan?

As you can see, there are many questions. For now the rockets and missiles are not flying overhead and there is an uneasy calm, but the situation is tense and the skirmishes on the ground, in both Lebanon and Gaza could easily escalate once more. 

We are all feeling weary of the war, violence and hatred, and I sense that the world as a whole has rather lost interest in the fate of Israel in this situation. If you belong to the LORD, please do not give up praying for Israel. It may seem very far away, but what happens here will affect the entire world, and you, and I, are here 'just for a time like this'. If we do not 'stand in the gap', who will?

It feels to us here in Israel that the entire world is rising up against this tiny land and the Jewish people as a whole. Today is International Holocaust Day, the commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz 80 years ago, and once again expressions of blatant antisemitism have become socially acceptable in many countries, and in the media.  Will there be another Holocaust? Will you stand up against this tide of antisemitism or will you look the other way? We need to pray fervently and perhaps the LORD will relent. The prophet Amos said this,

I cried out, “Sovereign Lord, forgive! How can Jacob survive? He is so small!”
 So the Lord relented.
“This will not happen,” the Lord said.
This is what the Sovereign Lord showed me: The Sovereign Lord was calling for judgment by fire; it dried up the great deep and devoured the land.  Then I cried out, “Sovereign Lord, I beg you, stop! How can Jacob survive? He is so small!” So the Lord relented.
Amos 7: 2-6

Is Micah's prophesy about to be fulfilled?

But now many nations
    are gathered against you.
They say, “Let her be defiled,
    let our eyes gloat over Zion!”
12 But they do not know
    the thoughts of the Lord;
they do not understand his plan,
    that he has gathered them like sheaves to the threshing floor.
13 “Rise and thresh, Daughter Zion,
    for I will give you horns of iron;
I will give you hooves of bronze,
    and you will break to pieces many nations.”

Micah 4: 11-13

15 Jan 2025  9PM Israel time

It has just been officially announced that Israel and Hamas have both agreed to 3-stage plan to bring about the end of the war, and the release of the remaining Israeli hostages. The deal is expected to be officially signed in the coming hours. 

In the first stage, which will take six weeks to complete, 33 of the remaining 98 hostages will be returned to Israel. The process will begin this coming Sunday (the 19th), with the release of the first three hostages. The 33 hostages to be released include female civilians and soldiers, children, the elderly and the injured or ill.  We do not yet know the identities of those to be released nor whether they are alive or deceased. I cannot imagine the agony the waiting families must be experiencing. 

During this phase both sides will enter into a ceasefire, and Israel will start withdrawing towards the east, allowing Gazan civilians to return home and be rehabilitated in stages. Israel will also release thousands of Hamas terrorists from Israeli jails, some to Gaza, Judea and Samaria, and some to exile elsewhere.   

The other 65 Israeli hostages will be released only in the second and third stages, the details of which are still to be ironed out by the parties involved. 

Is this the beginning of the end of the war? Will both sides honor the agreements? Can it be ensured that Hamas will not regroup, rearm and again attack Israel? Who will govern Gaza?  

There are still so many questions to be answered, but perhaps there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Only God knows. 

As you can see, as fast as I write the situation changes.  Read what I wrote yesterday:

14 Jan 2025  Missile attacks from the Houthis

It is Day 466 of the war in Israel, and this morning at around 3AM we were yet again woken up by the missile alert sirens.  The ballistic missile was fired from Yemen by the Houthis, who claim to have hit the IDF Central Command in Tel Aviv. In reality the missile was shot down over Jerusalem and the shrapnel fell in the surrounding areas, one large fragment punching through the roof of a house in Mevo Beitar, which lies between Jerusalem and Beit Shemesh. No one was injured, except for around 11 people who sustained minor injuries while running for shelter, or who suffered anxiety attacks. 

https://static-cdn.toi-media.com/www/uploads/2025/01/AFP__20250114__36TP4MN__v1__HighRes__IsraelYemenPalestinianConflict-1024x640.jpg

A rocket fragment embedded in roof of house in Mevo Beitar near Jerusalem, January 14, 2025

 Earlier yesterday, another interception of a ballistic missile caused fragments to fall in the Afula - Beit Shean and Jordan Valley area. 

Since the ceasefire came into effect in Lebanon, and the fall of Assad's regime in Syria, there has been an increase in the number of attacks from the Houthis. Since the beginning of the war in October 2023, the Houthis have fired around 40 ballistic surface-to-surface missiles and 320 armed UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) at Israel. Most of these either fell short or were shot down before reaching Israel. One drone penetrated and killed a man in Tel Aviv but, apart from that, there have been no fatalities in these attacks (as far as I can remember). Even when the missiles are shot down there is a danger of falling debris, and as you can see some of this 'shrapnel' is very large indeed. 

Is a hostage deal imminent?

In spite of this latest missile attack this morning all the news is focusing on the hostage deal negotiations. The media is full of reports saying the 'deal is on' the 'deal is imminent', the 'deal is off' and so on. I cannot imagine what the families of the hostages are going through in this maelstrom of information,  misinformation and speculations, not to mention purely fake news. 

Israelis are divided about the wisdom of even a temporary  ceasefire at this juncture, and the release of thousands of Palestinian terrorist prisoners from Israeli jails. Some see it as tantamount to conceding defeat and rewarding Hamas for its aggression. Some Palestinians are already celebrating Hamas' victory over Israel, and Hamas is boasting of its plans for future invasions such as that which they carried out on October 7,2023. 

Other Israelis support the proposed deal in order to obtain the release of hostages 'at any price'. Although the exact terms of the deal have not been publicized, it seems that the first stage of the deal will secure the release of only 33 of the 98 hostages remaining in Gaza, and it is unclear how many of those 33 are still alive. It is also unclear when and if the other 65 hostage, dead and alive, will be released. The clock is ticking for the hostages, even for those who were young and healthy when captured, since they have been starved of food, light and fresh air, and kept in horrendous damp and unsanitary conditions far underground, and denied medical care. It is thought that around 50% have already died. 

Personally my heart is torn. On one hand I want to see all the hostages rescued but I fear the consequences of agreeing to  any deal which allows for the survival of Hamas and the release of terrorists, especially those with Israeli blood on their hands. Its a terrible choice. 

I cannot imagine the pressure on our PM Netanyahu today. As someone put it 'he needs Solomonic wisdom' to know what to do. Its a lose-lose situation, and the 'Palestinians' are already celebrating their 'victory'. May the LORD give Netanyahu divine wisdom and guidance! 

Ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip

After 15 months of continual fighting, the IDF is still encountering pockets of resistance, discovering weapons caches, rocket launching sites and tunnels even in areas once deemed 'clear'. It is testimony to the massive preparations Hamas had made before their attack on October 7. It is also testimony to the massive amount of money they spent on military installations and equipment, rather than using it to improve the lives of the Gazan population. Over 300 km of concrete-lined tunnels have been discovered in a network under the Strip, which measures just  41 kilometres (25 miles) long, and from 6 to 12 km (3.7 to 7.5 mi) wide. (Just imagine how many homes, schools, hospitals etc. could have been built with that concrete, and how many water desalination plants and electricity stations and infrastructure could have been built with that money.)

With the fighting ongoing, soldiers of the IDF are still being killed. Just yesterday 5 were killed, and 10 injured, in the northern Gaza Strip, among them the son (aged 20) of one of my colleagues at All Israel News. His funeral is to take place in about an hour from now (at 2PM on 14/01). 

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has lost a total of 840 soldiers, including 55 in the current operation in the northern Strip which began in October 2024, according to the official figures of the IDF. 

Although the military apparatus of Hamas has been largely destroyed, it still has many fighters and much equipment and has made no secret of the fact they want to carry out more kidnappings and attacks in Israel. Lately, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have even resumed firing rockets, on an almost daily basis, from Gaza into the southern communities of Israel, even as the traumatised people there are returning to try and rebuild their homes and lives.

It seems too that, against all the odds, Hamas is managing to rearm, and there are reports of large numbers of men being recruited into their fighting ranks. Some reports suggest that roughly the same number of new recruits have been added to their number as the number of Hamas operatives killed by the IDF. 

Ceasefire in Lebanon

The ceasefire in Lebanon, which began on the 27 November, seems to be more or less holding. Apart from one anti-tank RPG there has been no cross-border rocket fire from Hezbollah. The IDF has however been continually acting against Hezbollah operatives entering the region south of the Litani River, which was forbidden by the ceasefire agreement. The IDF has discovered massive preparations in tunnels and 'civilian' houses for a planned attack on northern Israel in which some 5,300 Hezbollah operatives were to storm the border in 36 places and capture and take hostage the residents of a number of Israeli towns in the Galilee and Golan.

The big question is: Why didn't they do it?  Had they carried out this plan simultaneously with the Hamas attack we would have been in big trouble. May God be praised!

The 60 day ceasefire ends on the 26th of January and by that time the IDF is supposed to have withdrawn all its troops from Lebanon, and the Lebanese government army (LAF) taken control in the region vacated, and all Hezbollah forces withdrawn north of the Litani River. Although the IDF has withdrawn from some towns and villages, there is doubt that the LAF will be able to take control and expel all the Hezbollah forces in that time frame. It may be that the IDF will have to extend the deadline. The IDF is still encountering Hezbollah operatives south of the Litani River, and uncovering Hezbollah weapons caches and military positions. 

The Fall of the Assad Regime in Syria

Since the lightning fast fall of the Assad regime in Syria the situation remains extremely fluid. A de facto government has been established under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani), the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Al Sharaa is at pains to present himself and his organisation as being 'moderate' and as having no plans to threaten any other country. 

Thankfully our leadership is suspicious of this claim and is watching very carefully. Once things have quietened down, and the spotlight is turned off, Al Sharaa will most likely revert to type and introduce strict Sharia Law, persecute minority groups, and threaten Israel. We have seen this pattern in several instances elsewhere in the Middle East when terror groups take control. 

Israel has occupied the buffer zone between Syria and Israel, including the strategically important Syrian summit of Mt Hermon. The IAF has also been bombing and destroying Assad's heavy weapons, military equipment and arms caches so that these do not fall into the hands of HTS, ISIS or any other terror group.  The IDF is also destroying routes by which weapons were shipped through Syria from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iraq

Iraq, seeing the writing on the wall, also announced soon after the fall of Assad that it would no longer fire missiles at Israel, and would not participate in the smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah. 

Iran

The fall of Assad's regime came as a serious blow to Iran which had already more or less lost its two main proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. After Israel destroyed most of Iran's defense capability on the 26 October 2024, Iran has repeatedly threatened retaliation but, to date, nothing has eventuated. 

It seems to me a shame that Israel and its allies, especially the US and the UK which already have forces in the region, have not taken the opportunity to destroy Iran's nuclear sites, once and for all. Why has this not happened? I suspect there are two main reasons: one, that the Biden administration has withheld from Israel the bunker busting bombs needed to do the job, and two, that Biden does not want it to happen on 'his watch'. He wants to go down in history as the President who made peace, not war, in the Middle East. 

I fear the opportunity created by Israel's destruction of Iran's defensive systems may already have been partially lost by this delay in taking action. There are reports that since October, Iran has managed to restore at least some of its defense capability. 

There is some expectation here that after Donald Trump is inaugurated as U.S. President on January 21st things will change. Although Trump has made it clear that he wants to deal with Iran through sanctions and diplomacy, with Iran only days or weeks away from producing a nuclear bomb, there is no time for those solutions. The question is, will Trump support and cooperate with Israel to destroy Iran's potential to build a nuclear arsenal? 

Turkey

Turkey's dictatorial President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has made no secret of his desire to reestablish the Turkish Empire. Turkey backed, armed and financed the HTS, and is reportedly amassing its army along the Turkish-Syrian border. Here in Israel, we are watching developments very carefully. 

Egypt

In 1979 Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty. The treaty stipulated very specifically what military resources Egypt was permitted to locate in the Sinai. These stipulations were relaxed in recent years to help Egypt counter the ISIS presence there. However more recently, Egypt has massively expanded and strengthened its military presence in the Sinai, far beyond what is permitted, and this with aid and arms provided by the USA. One must ask why? 

 WHAT ON EARTH IS HAPPENING IN SYRIA AND WHY SHOULD WE CARE?

The Lord foils the plans of the nations;
    he thwarts the purposes of the peoples.
 But the plans of the Lord stand firm forever,
    the purposes of his heart through all generations.

Psalm 33:10-11

On Sunday, 8/12/24, we awoke to a new world reality which can only be described as a cataclysmic shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. During the night, President Assad of Syria, having told his army to stand down, fled Damascus and is now believed to be in Russia, leaving the door wide open for the advancing rebel militias. Damascus has fallen without a fight, and the rebel militias led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now have control. 

You, like me, are probably confused by the spaghetti-like tangle of terror militias and organizations operating in Syria today. This 10 minute video  gives a good explanation of the the rapid chain of events that led to Assad's downfall:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snObSKVYQwY

Syria was an artificially constructed nation formed as a result of the Sykes-Picot agreement after WWI and consisted of a conglomeration of various ethnic and religious groups, most of which hated each other. For the last 50 years it was held together by the often brutal and oppressive Assad Regime but it began to blow apart during the Civil War which began in 2011. Now, the Assad Regime has been defeated by the lightning advance of the rebel army which took Aleppo at the end of November and Damascus on the night of December 7-8th this year. 

There were 3 main players, and a myriad of smaller entities, involved in this coup:

1. The Rebels: led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) and includes the Syrian National Army and the Syrian Free Army (both of which were in opposition to Assad). HTS is supported by Al Qaeda, ISIS, and other Shiite Islamist organizations.  It is backed by Turkey and Ukraine. 

2. The Assad Regime - backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Now, defeated. The Russian troops that were stationed in Syria have fled, and Iran and Hezbollah have been decimated and  weakened by the fighting against Israel. Assad's military forces have collapsed. 

3. Kurdish-led forces, including the YPG (People's Defense Units), the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), and the Peshmerga. 

An area in the south west, near the Israeli border, is controlled by Druze armed groups. Pockets of ISIS/ISIL hold territory in the eastern desert. 

What does this all mean for Israel? 

We in Israel were surprised by the rapidity of the unfolding events and are still in a state of shock, trying to figure out what is happening. 

No one is shedding tears for Assad, who was a cruel and evil dictator who massacred at least 500,000 of his own people during the Civil War period, and caused 6 million to become refugees. He maintained power by brutal atrocities carried out against any dissenters. He even used chemical weapons on his own people. He was supported by Russia and Iran.

Assad's flight and the collapse of his army now leaves a large chunk of the country in a power vacuum and it remains to be seen who will take control of what. The main cities have fallen to the HTS forces and it seems they came with prepared plans to take over the governance of the state. 

Their leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is a wanted a terrorist with an extremely bloody past, such that the USA has a $US 10 million bounty on his head. He claims to have cut ties with al-Qaeda and ISIS/ISIL and is adopting a more moderate ideology, but as Caroline Glick pointed out,  "You can't be a half jihadi; you can't be half pregnant".  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_flG2cVNoAQ&t=1129s).

Also, consider the name of Jolani's militia - Hay'at Tahrir al Sham (HTS)- which translates as 'Freedom for the Levant'. The term 'Levant' includes Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. Although Jolani's eyes may be turned towards the conquest of Syria right now, his ultimate aim is clearly the conquest of all of the Levant, including Israel. Yesterday the Israel Broadcasting Authority quoted the rebels as saying, "The Israeli Chief of Staff Halevi says that Syria is a battlefront, and we say to him: To Jerusalem, we are coming to you, you Jews,"

Another clue lies in his name. Jolani, is the Arabic version of Golani, meaning native to the Golan. Jolani was born Ahmad al-Ashra, but he adopted the pseudonym 'al-Jolani' in reference to his claimed family heritage in the Golan region, which was seized by Israel in the Yom Kippur War. For more about Jolani read: https://allisrael.com/who-is-abu-mohammed-al-jolani-leader-of-the-syrian-rebel-group-which-overthrew-assad.

Israel is not deceived by Jolani's apparent lack of interest in confronting Israel right now. We are watching his every move, and are prepared both offensively and defensively to protect our borders and nation. 

In recent months Israel has built a defensive berm and trenches along the Israel-Syrian  border in order to help prevent a land invasion, but with the fall of the Assad Regime, other measures have become necessary. In the last few days Israel has:

1. Increased the stationing of IDF troops and arms along the Syrian border. It has also carried out training exercises to prepare for any offensive or defensive eventuality. 

2. Occupied a buffer zone in the Area of Separation (AiS) that was set up in 1974. The agreements formed then are now void since the Assad Regime has fallen. Assad's forces had vacated the area and some armed terrorist groups were active there, but the IDF moved in without facing any resistance. The IDF now occupies the Syrian side of Mt Hermon which overlooks Syria, Lebanon and Israel, and is therefore of great strategic value. 

3. The IDF temporarily entered Syria when Israel was asked to rescue the UN Disengagement Observer Forces (UNDOF) which were being attacked by armed groups at a post near the Syrian town of Hader close to the Israeli border. 

4. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has, over the last few days,  targeted at least 320 military sites in Syria, and destroyed around 70-80% of the military capabilities of the former Syrian Arab Army of the Assad regime, in order to prevent their strategic weapons falling into the hands of the terrorist militias hostile to Israel.

 According to AllIsraelNews, "The destroyed targets include strategic weapons such as Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs [drones], fighter jets, but also regular army equipment like attack helicopters, radars, tanks, hangars, and reportedly also intelligence infrastructure". The IAF bombing also destroyed Assad's chemical weapons stockpiles. 

5. The Israeli Navy attacked the ports of al-Beida and Latakia  sinking or destroying at least 15 missile ships of  Assad's navy.  

It is hard to know at this stage whether the fall of Syria will be to Israel's advantage or to our detriment.

The fall of the Assad Regime and the takeover by HTS can be attributed to the weakening of Assad's main supporters, Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. 

Hamas as a military force has been thoroughly defeated by Israel, though pockets of terrorists still remain in Gaza, and the ideology persists. Just this morning, Hamas operatives managed to fire 4 rockets into Israel, two were shot down and two landed in open areas - this after more than14 months of warfare, and the daily destruction of Hamas personnel, infrastructure and weapons. 

Hamas still holds around 100 Israeli hostages, at least 60 of which are already dead. Negotiations are ongoing for their release but the clock is ticking as their health is seriously deteriorating because of starvation and the inhumane conditions in which they are being held.

 Hezbollah has been decimated in Lebanon. It is thought that the IDF has destroyed around 80% of Hezbollah's weapons and military infrastructure but much still remains. The ceasefire seems to be more or less holding but there have been many infringements. Hezbollah in Lebanon has now been cut off from its source of munitions and personnel which were coming through Syria from Iran. 

The Houthis are still firing ballistic missiles and armed drones at Israel, over 250 to date, but nearly all have been shot down by our defense systems. Just this week two drones from Yemen reached Israel, one was shot down but the second hit an apartment building in a coastal city. Last week two ballistic missiles were fired at Israel but were also shot down outside of Israeli airspace (although some shrapnel landed in Israeli territory).

Iran as a power player in the Middle East is critically wounded, perhaps fatally, but a wounded 'bear' is a dangerous animal, especially when cornered. Iran has been humiliated by Israel's attacks and the destruction of its defensive arrays, and now is vulnerable to any attack on its territory. It is also being increasingly shaken by internal disagreements in its leadership. Iran is frantically enriching uranium in order to produce nuclear bombs. Israel is watching this closely and may soon be forced to act to prevent this becoming a threat not only to Israel but also to the whole of the Middle East and Europe. 

Another player that needs to be watched closely is Turkey. The Turkish Leader Recep Erdogan has openly stated his desire for the reestablishment of the Turkish (Ottoman) Empire. Turkey also hates the Kurds and his army is actively fighting against the Kurds in the north eastern part of Syria. For more on Turkey see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgEFHPeqzg&t=448s 

As a result of the overthrow of the Assad Regime, Russia has been forced to withdraw from several key positions in Syria including air defense units in western Syria, the strategically important Khemeimim airbase near Latakia, and its naval facility at Tartus in NW Syria. Russia may have lost their 'toehold' in Syria, and it may be preoccupied with the war with Ukraine, but it has not lost its interest in being a major player in the reshuffling of the Middle East power blocks. For more on this read: https://allisrael.com/putin-s-pravda-unveiled-russia-s-growing-hostility-towards-israel

As the various ethnic and religious groups jostle for power within Syria, the 'big players' Russia, Turkey and Iran, together with China, are operating behind the scenes to take advantage of these events in order to bring down the western power block, led by the USA. The USA is perceived in the Middle East  as weak and indecisive, since it persists in thinking it can negotiate peace and impose its democratic, Judeo-Christian western values on the Middle Eastern mind and geopolitics.

Many Christians around the world are wondering if we are seeing the fulfillment of the prophecies concerning the War of Gog of Magog, as recorded in Ezekiel 38 and 39. It seems to me that we may indeed be seeing the preparatory moves, but the actual war has not begun. The chess board is getting set up. The main players seem to be moving into place. As we have seen in recent days, things can happen very fast. Watch this space...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibz5K_QmWH8

https://www.timesofisrael.com/who-are-the-rebels-battering-syrias-regime-and-do-they-pose-a-risk-to-israel/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQVZUCaHBdA