WHAT ON EARTH IS HAPPENING IN SYRIA AND WHY SHOULD WE CARE?
The Lord foils the plans of the nations;
he thwarts the purposes of the peoples.
But the plans of the Lord stand firm forever,
the purposes of his heart through all generations.
Psalm 33:10-11
On Sunday, 8/12/24, we awoke to a new world reality which can only be described as a cataclysmic shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. During the night, President Assad of Syria, having told his army to stand down, fled Damascus and is now believed to be in Russia, leaving the door wide open for the advancing rebel militias. Damascus has fallen without a fight, and the rebel militias led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now have control.
You, like me, are probably confused by the spaghetti-like tangle of terror militias and organizations operating in Syria today. This 10 minute video gives a good explanation of the the rapid chain of events that led to Assad's downfall: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snObSKVYQwY
Syria was an artificially constructed nation formed as a result of the Sykes-Picot agreement after WWI and consisted of a conglomeration of various ethnic and religious groups, most of which hated each other. For the last 50 years it was held together by the often brutal and oppressive Assad Regime but it began to blow apart during the Civil War which began in 2011. Now, the Assad Regime has been defeated by the lightning advance of the rebel army which took Aleppo at the end of November and Damascus on the night of December 7-8th this year.
There were 3 main players, and a myriad of smaller entities, involved in this coup:
1. The Rebels: led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) and includes the Syrian National Army and the Syrian Free Army (both of which were in opposition to Assad). HTS is supported by Al Qaeda, ISIS, and other Shiite Islamist organizations. It is backed by Turkey and Ukraine.
2. The Assad Regime - backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Now, defeated. The Russian troops that were stationed in Syria have fled, and Iran and Hezbollah have been decimated and weakened by the fighting against Israel. Assad's military forces have collapsed.
3. Kurdish-led forces, including the YPG (People's Defense Units), the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), and the Peshmerga.
An area in the south west, near the Israeli border, is controlled by Druze armed groups. Pockets of ISIS/ISIL hold territory in the eastern desert.
What does this all mean for Israel?
We in Israel were surprised by the rapidity of the unfolding events and are still in a state of shock, trying to figure out what is happening.
No one is shedding tears for Assad, who was a cruel and evil dictator who massacred at least 500,000 of his own people during the Civil War period, and caused 6 million to become refugees. He maintained power by brutal atrocities carried out against any dissenters. He even used chemical weapons on his own people. He was supported by Russia and Iran.
Assad's flight and the collapse of his army now leaves a large chunk of the country in a power vacuum and it remains to be seen who will take control of what. The main cities have fallen to the HTS forces and it seems they came with prepared plans to take over the governance of the state.
Their leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is a wanted a terrorist with an extremely bloody past, such that the USA has a $US 10 million bounty on his head. He claims to have cut ties with al-Qaeda and ISIS/ISIL and is adopting a more moderate ideology, but as Caroline Glick pointed out, "You can't be a half jihadi; you can't be half pregnant". (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_flG2cVNoAQ&t=1129s).
Also, consider the name of Jolani's militia - Hay'at Tahrir al Sham (HTS)- which translates as 'Freedom for the Levant'. The term 'Levant' includes Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. Although Jolani's eyes may be turned towards the conquest of Syria right now, his ultimate aim is clearly the conquest of all of the Levant, including Israel. Yesterday the Israel Broadcasting Authority quoted the rebels as saying, "The Israeli Chief of Staff Halevi says that Syria is a battlefront, and we say to him: To Jerusalem, we are coming to you, you Jews,"
Another clue lies in his name. Jolani, is the Arabic version of Golani, meaning native to the Golan. Jolani was born Ahmad al-Ashra, but he adopted the pseudonym 'al-Jolani' in reference to his claimed family heritage in the Golan region, which was seized by Israel in the Yom Kippur War. For more about Jolani read: https://allisrael.com/who-is-abu-mohammed-al-jolani-leader-of-the-syrian-rebel-group-which-overthrew-assad.
Israel is not deceived by Jolani's apparent lack of interest in confronting Israel right now. We are watching his every move, and are prepared both offensively and defensively to protect our borders and nation.
In recent months Israel has built a defensive berm and trenches along the Israel-Syrian border in order to help prevent a land invasion, but with the fall of the Assad Regime, other measures have become necessary. In the last few days Israel has:
1. Increased the stationing of IDF troops and arms along the Syrian border. It has also carried out training exercises to prepare for any offensive or defensive eventuality.
2. Occupied a buffer zone in the Area of Separation (AiS) that was set up in 1974. The agreements formed then are now void since the Assad Regime has fallen. Assad's forces had vacated the area and some armed terrorist groups were active there, but the IDF moved in without facing any resistance. The IDF now occupies the Syrian side of Mt Hermon which overlooks Syria, Lebanon and Israel, and is therefore of great strategic value.
3. The IDF temporarily entered Syria when Israel was asked to rescue the UN Disengagement Observer Forces (UNDOF) which were being attacked by armed groups at a post near the Syrian town of Hader close to the Israeli border.
4. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has, over the last few days, targeted at least 320 military sites in Syria, and destroyed around 70-80% of the military capabilities of the former Syrian Arab Army of the Assad regime, in order to prevent their strategic weapons falling into the hands of the terrorist militias hostile to Israel.
According to AllIsraelNews, "The destroyed targets include strategic weapons such as Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs [drones], fighter jets, but also regular army equipment like attack helicopters, radars, tanks, hangars, and reportedly also intelligence infrastructure". The IAF bombing also destroyed Assad's chemical weapons stockpiles.
5. The Israeli Navy attacked the ports of al-Beida and Latakia sinking or destroying at least 15 missile ships of Assad's navy.
It is hard to know at this stage whether the fall of Syria will be to Israel's advantage or to our detriment.
The fall of the Assad Regime and the takeover by HTS can be attributed to the weakening of Assad's main supporters, Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Hamas as a military force has been thoroughly defeated by Israel, though pockets of terrorists still remain in Gaza, and the ideology persists. Just this morning, Hamas operatives managed to fire 4 rockets into Israel, two were shot down and two landed in open areas - this after more than14 months of warfare, and the daily destruction of Hamas personnel, infrastructure and weapons.
Hamas still holds around 100 Israeli hostages, at least 60 of which are already dead. Negotiations are ongoing for their release but the clock is ticking as their health is seriously deteriorating because of starvation and the inhumane conditions in which they are being held.
Hezbollah has been decimated in Lebanon. It is thought that the IDF has destroyed around 80% of Hezbollah's weapons and military infrastructure but much still remains. The ceasefire seems to be more or less holding but there have been many infringements. Hezbollah in Lebanon has now been cut off from its source of munitions and personnel which were coming through Syria from Iran.
The Houthis are still firing ballistic missiles and armed drones at Israel, over 250 to date, but nearly all have been shot down by our defense systems. Just this week two drones from Yemen reached Israel, one was shot down but the second hit an apartment building in a coastal city. Last week two ballistic missiles were fired at Israel but were also shot down outside of Israeli airspace (although some shrapnel landed in Israeli territory).
Iran as a power player in the Middle East is critically wounded, perhaps fatally, but a wounded 'bear' is a dangerous animal, especially when cornered. Iran has been humiliated by Israel's attacks and the destruction of its defensive arrays, and now is vulnerable to any attack on its territory. It is also being increasingly shaken by internal disagreements in its leadership. Iran is frantically enriching uranium in order to produce nuclear bombs. Israel is watching this closely and may soon be forced to act to prevent this becoming a threat not only to Israel but also to the whole of the Middle East and Europe.
Another player that needs to be watched closely is Turkey. The Turkish Leader Recep Erdogan has openly stated his desire for the reestablishment of the Turkish (Ottoman) Empire. Turkey also hates the Kurds and his army is actively fighting against the Kurds in the north eastern part of Syria. For more on Turkey see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgEFHPeqzg&t=448s
As a result of the overthrow of the Assad Regime, Russia has been forced to withdraw from several key positions in Syria including air defense units in western Syria, the strategically important Khemeimim airbase near Latakia, and its naval facility at Tartus in NW Syria. Russia may have lost their 'toehold' in Syria, and it may be preoccupied with the war with Ukraine, but it has not lost its interest in being a major player in the reshuffling of the Middle East power blocks. For more on this read: https://allisrael.com/putin-s-pravda-unveiled-russia-s-growing-hostility-towards-israel
As the various ethnic and religious groups jostle for power within Syria, the 'big players' Russia, Turkey and Iran, together with China, are operating behind the scenes to take advantage of these events in order to bring down the western power block, led by the USA. The USA is perceived in the Middle East as weak and indecisive, since it persists in thinking it can negotiate peace and impose its democratic, Judeo-Christian western values on the Middle Eastern mind and geopolitics.
Many Christians around the world are wondering if we are seeing the fulfillment of the prophecies concerning the War of Gog of Magog, as recorded in Ezekiel 38 and 39. It seems to me that we may indeed be seeing the preparatory moves, but the actual war has not begun. The chess board is getting set up. The main players seem to be moving into place. As we have seen in recent days, things can happen very fast. Watch this space...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibz5K_QmWH8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQVZUCaHBdA
