CEASEFIRE - SURRENDER OR VICTORY?
Last night I went to bed with some trepidation as it had been announced that a ceasefire deal with Lebanon had been signed and it was considered likely that Hezbollah, and perhaps others, would attack Israel massively in a last-ditch effort before the ceasefire came into effect at 10AM the next day. This morning however, I awoke to discover that the ceasefire had already begun, at 4AM, and no massive attack had eventuated. Now, 2PM Wednesday, the ceasefire, already 12 hours in, is still holding even though it is unclear whether Hezbollah has officially agreed.
How do I feel about the ceasefire? In a word, conflicted.
On one hand I am relieved and hope that the people in the north will soon be able to return to their homes, rebuild their lives, houses, businesses and farms, and their children return to school. I feel the same about the displaced people of Lebanon. I hope that Israelis in Tel Aviv, Haifa and all of the north and center will no longer have to run for shelter several times a day as the alert sirens sound. I hope to see our reserve soldiers being able to come home to their wives and families, return to their studies, jobs and businesses, and get some well earned rest in safety. I hope that children can return to school.
On the other hand, I have some serious doubts. How long will the ceasefire hold? According to the terms of the ceasefire it will be enforced by the Lebanese Army and monitored by the USA, France (both of which have proven to be somewhat fickle friends of Israel) and UNIFIL. The Lebanese government includes representatives of Hezbollah and the Lebanese army has been infiltrated by many Hezbollah fighters. Can we therefore trust the Lebanese to monitor and enforce the ceasefire? UNIFIL's track record is abysmal, especially their total inability to enforce the terms of UN Security Council resolution 1701 which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006. As occurred after that war, will the ceasefire just give Hezbollah the chance to rearm and regroup, and build a massive military infrastructure, so it could attack Israel even more forcefully some time in the future?
Another concern is that Hezbollah operatives will re-enter the territory the IDF has 'cleared', posing as civilians returning to their homes, just as they did during the period after 2006, when they built military infrastructure inside ostensibly civilian houses, and forced the actual local civilians to cooperate with them even storing weapons and equipment in their homes.
On the other hand (yes I know that's 3 hands already - the situation is complex) the ceasefire will give Israel a chance to rearm and regroup, and concentrate its efforts elsewhere, especially in Gaza and against Iran.
Netanyahu in his speech to the nation last evening (26/11) gave three reasons for the ceasefire:
"The first reason is to focus on the Iranian threat, and I won't expand on that.
The second reason is to give our forces a breather and replenish stocks. And I say it openly, it is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries. These delays will be resolved soon. We will receive supplies of advanced weaponry that will keep our soldiers safe and give us more strike force to complete our mission.
And the third reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas. From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages".
For a full transcript of Netanyahu's speech (translated to English) go to: https://www.gov.il/en/pages/spoke-statement261124
For an analysis of the pros and cons I would recommend this video by Joel Rosenberg (made before the official announcement of the ceasefire):
I think it is significant that in his speech Netanyahu admitted that there have been delays in the resupply and shipment of weapons (from the USA - though he didn't say so). This raises the question, was he thus manipulated into agreeing to the ceasefire by the US in order to release the weapon blockade? And, being even more cynical, I can't help but wonder if this whole deal is an effort of the Biden administration to score 'brownie points' in the annals of history as a broker of 'peace' before their term in office ends?
I have to give Netanyahu credit however that this is not the case. He has, over the past year or so of this war, stood firm against the intense pressure emanating from the US Biden administration and other nations. It seems unlikely that he would fold now, especially at a time when Israel has scored so many victories on the battlefield.
I guess the bottom line is 'wait and see'. The coming days and weeks and months will show us if this was the right move or not. God has allowed it to happen and we must trust Him. It is His battle and He will be victorious in the end.
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Excerpts from Psalm 33
Pray for:
1. Courage and wisdom for our leaders, and that they may have the wisdom to do what is right and just and according to God's will,
2. The release and return of all of the living hostages and the bodies of those already deceased,
3. A solution for the 'day after' in Gaza,
4. The soldiers of Israel, both the standing army and the reservists, that they will remain vigilant and fight with untiring courage (as they have now done for 418 days), but also that they can get the respite they need.
5. The people of the north who have been internal refugees in Israel, that they may soon be able to return to their homes and rebuild their lives.
6. The civilians of Lebanon and Gaza, that they also may be able to rebuild their homes and lives.
7. All the peoples of the region, Jew and Gentile alike, that they may forsake false gods, and deceiving ideologies, and turn to the true God, YHWH, and find salvation in Yeshua.
A few days ago, before the ceasefire was declared, I published an article in All Israel News (AIN), entitled "Should we negotiate peace with Iran and its proxies?"
I stress that it represents my own opinion and not that of AIN or anyone else. Here is the link:
https://allisrael.com/
I would also strongly recommend the video referenced at the end of the article - an interview between Caroline Glick and Moriel Bareli - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsE5B-9uMYk. This interview should be required watching for all non-Muslims as it will help us understand what is happening, not just in the Middle East but in the whole world today.
